Using a logistic regression and predicted probabilities, I show that, despite the existence of a race-based affirmative action policy designed to alleviate structural barriers in South Africa’s labor market, structural factors still significantly attenuate the role of university education in enabling labor force participation among historically marginalized groups. However, in a country in which structural factors such as race, gender, and age continue to shape labor market outcomes, to what extent can attainment of university education significantly improve the labor market outcomes of historically marginalized groups? To evaluate the limits and possible unintended consequences of this policy intervention, I use nationally representative data from 1994 through 2017 to explore the correlation between a bachelor’s degree and the likelihood of unemployment. The South African government recently adopted an education policy that attempts to achieve socio-economic redress through expanding free university education to first-year students from low-income backgrounds.
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